MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY

Department of Economics Seminar Series 

"Ireland's medium-term economic outlook: risks and opportunities"

by

Mert Yakut

(Economic and Social Research Institute)

Date: December 29, 2025 (Monday)

Time: 14:00

Place: Fikret Görün Seminar Room (F106), FEAS - Building A

Abstract

Ireland's economic growth experience has fluctuated widely over recent decades. The Celtic Tiger era was followed by a contractionary period until the mid-2010s. After a period of relative stability from 2015 to 2020, the economy was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During this period, the Irish economy has become multinational-dominated and export-oriented, which, in turn, has increased its vulnerability to external shocks. This study aims to examine the implications of major risks and opportunities facing the economy in a pessimistic global economic environment, driven by evolving US trade policy and global geopolitical uncertainty. By utilising the Ireland Environment, Energy and Economy (I3E), a small-open-economy, single-country intertemporal computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we investigate the implications of the global slowdown in economic activity, the loss of competitiveness against trade partners, and potential downsizing by multinational firms. In the fourth scenario, the effects of domestic policies focusing on the Irish-owned firms-dominated sectors are examined. Under the assumptions considered in the scenarios, the projected results clearly show that external risks to the Irish economy would have significant repercussions for economic activity, but strategies aimed at rebalancing the composition of economic activity between foreign- and Irish-owned firms through productivity improvements would yield substantial benefits.